Umbrellas at the Ready: Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds Set to Soak Brisbane

Wet Conditions Sweep Across the River City

Brisbane residents should prepare for a significant weather shift as Sunday, 15 February 2026, brings widespread rain and cooler-than-average temperatures. After a week of varied conditions, the Bureau of Meteorology and leading climate trackers have confirmed that a high-pressure system is driving a moist air mass directly into the South East Queensland coast. With a near 100% chance of precipitation throughout the day, today is certainly not the time for outdoor picnics or unprotected outdoor activities.

Morning Outlook: A Damp Start

The morning is expected to begin under a thick blanket of grey clouds, with light rain and persistent drizzle beginning as early as dawn. Temperatures will hover around 20°C to 21°C during the early hours, making for a humid but relatively cool start. While the rainfall in the morning hours may seem manageable—initially recorded at just a few millimeters—the saturation of the ground will set the stage for heavier downpours later in the day. Winds will start to pick up from the south-southeast at roughly 15 km/h, adding a slight chill to the air.

Afternoon Predictions: Heaviest Rain Expected

The intensity of the weather is predicted to peak during the afternoon. Meteorological data indicates that the most significant rainfall totals will occur between 1:00 PM and 5:00 PM. Forecasts suggest a total daily rainfall accumulation of approximately 27mm (over 1 inch), with a 99% probability of heavy showers during this window. The maximum temperature is expected to reach only 23°C or 24°C, which is notably lower than the February average of 29°C. Humidity levels will remain exceptionally high, sitting near 89%, which may lead to foggy conditions in the western suburbs and higher elevations.

Evening and Night: Winds Ease, Showers Persist

As we head into the evening, the intensity of the heavy rain is expected to taper off into lighter, periodic showers. However, the overcast conditions will remain firmly in place. One positive for the late-night period is that the gusty south-southeasterly winds, which may reach up to 25 km/h during the afternoon, are forecast to become light and variable after sunset. Temperatures overnight will dip to a minimum of 19°C, maintaining a consistent and damp atmosphere into the early hours of Monday morning.

Summary of Warnings and Precautions

• Rainfall: High probability (99%) with expected totals near 27mm. Localized flash flooding in low-lying areas is possible.
• Winds: South-southeasterly winds of 15 to 25 km/h, easing in the late evening.
• UV Index: Despite the cloud cover, a moderate UV index of 3 is expected; however, visibility on the roads will be the primary concern for commuters.
• Temperature Range: A narrow corridor between 20°C and 24°C.